The big story this week? Local elections. Of course, less of a big story here in Wyre Forest as we don’t have them, but Thursday this week will see a seismic change for local representation.
Widely expected to do well are Reform UK and Greens. Doing badly will be my party, the Conservatives. And having a catastrophic collapse will be Labour. Of course, if you are reading this column on Friday afternoon, the outcome will be known.
There is no doubt about it, people are utterly fed up with the main two parties. The general election result in 2024 certainly sent a very clear message to Conservatives. But the Labour landslide was won with 550,000 fewer votes than achieved by Jeremy Corbyn in 2019. Starmer didn’t win a huge victory – he was the best, least worse loser.
But commentators are not talking about local service delivery. They are talking about this election being an angry shout at the appalling legacy of this current government, still under two years since it came to power. Keir Starmer is the most unpopular prime minister ever. Rachel Reeves the most unpopular Chancellor. Even much hyped Starmer replacement, Angela Rayner, is the third most unpopular politician in the country at the moment.
The analysis for why this is the case isn’t hard to understand. Multiple U-turns (we’ve lost count but getting on for twenty), civil servants and ministers thrown under whatever piece of public transport is passing as a sacrifice for Starmer’s latest act of incompetence. It goes on.
So, Labour will lose, maybe, a couple of thousand councillors. They will lose Wales after a century in power. They could come 4th in Scotland. It will be dire, and the putsch against Starmer will get underway in earnest.
It is understandable why voters, rejecting the establishment parties, are heading for the insurgents. Farage and Polanski lead those insurgents, and people look to them for inspiration. But here is the problem. The moment they get elected to control councils, or even the country in a general election, they are no longer the insurgents: they become the establishment. They have to deliver on their promises.
For all of us in Worcestershire, promised a cut in county council tax, we were given a 9% increase. The same in Kent, and other counties.
The outcome of these elections will be fascinating. But they will not change things overnight.
