The world just got more dangerous. The degree of intervention of the US in Iran was something that I underestimated. Of course, it would always be the case that the US would, at some level, get involved, but I had (wrongly) assumed Trump was not an enthusiast of armed conflict.
Right now, there are 5 major wars under way, as defined by there being more than 10,000 deaths in the last year. Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Palestine, the Myanmar civil war, the Sudanese civil war, and the Tigra Ethiopian war. Added to that are a further 18 conflicts that kill between 1,000 and 9,999 every year, and a further 13 that kill fewer than 1,000.
Meanwhile, tension continues to brew in the Straights of Taiwan, with China increasingly vocal about ownership of Taiwan. And now, the US supporting Israel with its new war against Iran. Remember, on the sometimes-unfathomable global network of alliances, China relies on cheap Iranian oil.
There seems to be a certain amount of ambiguity with regard the UK’s position on the latest round of attacks. Does Keir Starmer support the US attacks on Iran? Or will he stick with the line of a preferred diplomatic solution?
To be fair to Starmer, he does an OK job on the international stage. It seems to be his preferred arena, although it begs the question who runs the country while he is away? Angela Rayner?
With the Straits of Hormuz about to be blockaded – a route that sees 20% of global oil pass through annually – we may see another energy price shock. Last time we saw this, the Conservative government stepped in to help households, with up to £1,400 for the most vulnerable households. Although the Labour Party supported this at the time, they have made much about how this hit public finances. Rachel Reeves look set to maintain her current position and probably not support families in the event of a second energy price shock.
Meanwhile, 250,000 British Citizens live opposite Iran, on the other side of the Straits of Hormuz in the United Arab Emirates. Starmer has to think very carefully about not just Dubai, but many British citizens around the world. What is entirely possible is a series of terrorist attacks on vulnerable communities, as we have already seen. Starmer must make sure that he uses all his diplomatic skills to ensure no British citizen becomes a target.