In the aftermath of fall out between the Bank of England and the government, where the Governor’s verdict on Rachel Reeves’s budget to boost growth is to halve growth projections for this year, and increase expectations for inflation, I was at a dinner where Governor Andrew Bailey was asked some questions. He was interesting on immigration. When asked if increasing immigration would boost the Bank of England’s growth forecast, he paused. “Well….”
There is no doubt about it, some immigration is good. Many here in Wyre Forest are nursed by an immigrant NHS worker, treated by a foreign doctor. And some immigrants bring skills we just can’t find here.
But migration is changing. In the 25 years running up to the election of Tony Blair in 1997, the UK took in a net 68,000 people. In the 25 years following, the figure was just shy of 6 million. In the 10 years to 2032, we are expected to see a further net immigration of 4.9 million, and more than 1 in 5 people will have been born outside the UK.
But if they are creating wealth and earning money, what’s to worry about?
Let’s look at post Brexit numbers. From 2021 to 2023, just 12% of visas were issued for skilled workers. Of that 12%, 2 out of 3 – a total of 254,347 – were for the health and care sector where the average wage was £24,000. The remaining skilled workers averaged £45,000. But they bring dependents. In 2024 1,063 health and care visas were given to workers from Zimbabwe. They brought 10,670 dependents with them.
Migration is changing immeasurably. The Centre for Policy Studies extrapolates OBR figures to suggest that the 2021/3 cohort will cost our country £234 billion over their lifetime. With mass migration increasing, it is right that Kemi Badenoch announced her Conservative policy on migrants. Currently, someone living here for just 5 years can apply for British citizenship. That would rise to 15 years under Kemi’s plans. Immigrants with criminal records or those who have claimed benefits will not be granted leave to remain, a key step to citizenship.
Our economy has a long-term growth trajectory. But wealth per person has decreased, in the last few years, making each of us feel worse off. There is no harm in bringing in skills that are greater than the average, because that boosts our economy. But we need a migration policy that reflects 21st century migration.